ROBERT MORRIS
COLONIALSRMU
11-8 | Road
92
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
14-6 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
COLONIALS
100%
NORSE
0%
COLONIALS
--
NORSE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Northern Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NKU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)
RMU By 1-7 points
15.3%
RMU By 8-14 points
5.8%
NKU By 1-7 points
26.2%
NKU By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Robert Morris
82
ROBERT MORRIS
Northern Kentucky
89
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Robert Morris
67
ROBERT MORRIS
Northern Kentucky
72
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Norse
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Norse
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Norse (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Norse (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
RMU @ NKU
92 - 89
Dec 29, 2025
NKU @ RMU
79 - 77
Feb 8, 2025
RMU @ NKU
81 - 76
Dec 29, 2024
NKU @ RMU
93 - 97
Feb 28, 2024
NKU @ RMU
70 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+95.7% more
Northern Kentucky: 2.7
vs
Robert Morris: 1.4
Steals (L5)
+60.7% more
Northern Kentucky: 6.9
vs
Robert Morris: 4.3
Rebounding (L5)
+8.6% more
Northern Kentucky: 36.0
vs
Robert Morris: 33.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.7%
Northern Kentucky: 76.2%
vs
Robert Morris: 73.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RMU Score
82.0
92
NKU Score
89.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 39.1
23.0 / 39.0
Assists
17.3 / 18.7
16.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.7 / 1.4
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 47.3
42.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
76.2 / 73.5
73.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 33.1
37.0 / 47.0
Steals
6.9 / 4.3
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.8 / 13.6
14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RMU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +2.5
NKU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RMU
Advantage
19-11-1
(63.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +2.5
NKU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
RMU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.1
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NKU
RMU
NKU
RMU
ML
53%
18-16
36%
12-21
65%
22-12
56%
18-14
ATS
56%
19-15
55%
18-15
65%
22-12
56%
18-14
TTL
68%
23-11
55%
18-15
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
