Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Wolverines UTA @ UVU

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

12-5  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 4:00 PM ET
UCCU Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH VALLEY

WOLVERINESUVU

14-4  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
WOLVERINES
100%
MAVERICKS --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (UT Arlington)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 WolverinesUVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

100.0%

Wolverines Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTA -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

UTA By 1-7 points

0.2%

UTA By 8-14 points

1.4%

UVU By 1-7 points

0.0%

UVU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
78
UT ARLINGTON
42
UTAH VALLEY
Simulated Score
69
UT ARLINGTON
75
UTAH VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolverines Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UTA @ UVU 65 - 67
Feb 21, 2026 UVU @ UTA 66 - 54
Feb 7, 2026 UTA @ UVU 60 - 81
Jan 17, 2026 UTA @ UVU 74 - 86
Feb 6, 2025 UTA @ UVU 73 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
UT Arlington: 79.7% vs Utah Valley: 75.4%
Assists (L5) +109.3% more
Utah Valley: 20.1 vs UT Arlington: 9.6
Steals (L5) +51.5% more
Utah Valley: 10.1 vs UT Arlington: 6.6
Blocks (L5) +40.7% more
Utah Valley: 4.6 vs UT Arlington: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 78.0 74
UVU Score 42.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 34.2 33.0 / 30.0
Assists 20.1 / 9.6 18.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 52.3 / 41.8 53.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 79.7 61.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 37.8 34.0 / 32.0
Steals 10.1 / 6.6 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 14.1 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
UVU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
UVU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVU
UTA
UVU
UTA
ML
56% 18-14
50% 16-16
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
ATS
53% 17-15
59% 19-13
74% 25-9
62% 20-12
TTL
44% 14-18
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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