Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Lopes USU @ GCU

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

15-1  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 2:30 PM ET
Global Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

10-6  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
LOPES
0%
AGGIES --
LOPES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Grand Canyon)
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 LopesGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

5.5%

Lopes Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GCU -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)

USU By 1-7 points

4.0%

USU By 8-14 points

0.8%

GCU By 1-7 points

13.7%

GCU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
UTAH STATE
82
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
71
UTAH STATE
76
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lopes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lopes (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Lopes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 GCU @ USU 69 - 74
Jan 17, 2026 USU @ GCU 74 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +13.1% more
Grand Canyon: 11.4 vs Utah State: 10.1
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
Grand Canyon: 80.1% vs Utah State: 76.0%
Assists (L5) +37.1% more
Utah State: 18.2 vs Grand Canyon: 11.4
Field Goal % (L5) +10.4%
Utah State: 52.7% vs Grand Canyon: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 66.0 74
GCU Score 82.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.2 / 38.8 35.0 / 25.0
Assists 11.4 / 18.2 12.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.5 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 52.7 51.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 80.1 / 76.0 70.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 35.0 38.0 / 43.0
Steals 7.9 / 8.0 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 10.1 11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
12%MONEY88%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
GCU
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
GCU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
USU
GCU
USU
ML
66% 21-11
49% 17-18
68% 21-10
66% 21-11
ATS
72% 23-9
74% 26-9
68% 21-10
67% 22-11
TTL
44% 14-18
51% 18-17
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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