MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
26-15-7 | Road
6
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
22-19-5 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Sam Montembeault
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Artem Zub
#2 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Montembeault | None-None | 4.98 | 0.853 | -- |
| Artem Zub | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.98
GAA
--
0.853
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
100%
SENATORS
0%
CANADIENS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
MTL By 1 goal
12.1%
MTL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
OTT By 1 goal
19.7%
OTT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
3
MONTREAL
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Senators
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Senators (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Senators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
MTL @ OTT
3 - 2
Jan 17, 2026
MTL @ OTT
6 - 5
Dec 2, 2025
OTT @ MTL
5 - 2
Nov 1, 2025
OTT @ MTL
3 - 4
Apr 11, 2025
MTL @ OTT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+13.7% more
Ottawa: 31.1
vs
Montreal: 27.4
Power Play % (L5)
+24.4%
Montreal: 38.0%
vs
Ottawa: 13.7%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+22.5% more
Montreal: 19.3
vs
Ottawa: 15.0
Hits (L5)
+11.8% more
Montreal: 24.1
vs
Ottawa: 21.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
3.0
6
OTT Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.0 / 19.3
15.0 / 24.0
Faceoff %
47.3 / 53.4
46.7 / 53.3
Hits
21.3 / 24.1
26.0 / 28.0
Power Play %
13.7 / 38.0
66.7 / 40.0
Shots on Goal
31.1 / 27.4
34.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 4.3
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
MTL
OTT
MTL
ML
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
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