ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
12-6 | Road
74
TROY
TROJANSTROY
12-6 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
100%
TROJANS
0%
RED WOLVES
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TROY -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
ARST By 1-7 points
18.6%
ARST By 8-14 points
8.0%
TROY By 1-7 points
27.2%
TROY By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas State
82
ARKANSAS STATE
Troy
87
TROY
Simulated Score
Arkansas State
67
ARKANSAS STATE
Troy
73
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o165.5
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
ARST @ TROY
74 - 99
Jan 7, 2026
TROY @ ARST
74 - 86
Mar 10, 2025
ARST @ TROY
81 - 94
Feb 15, 2025
TROY @ ARST
71 - 70
Jan 11, 2025
ARST @ TROY
84 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+83.7% more
Troy: 3.3
vs
Arkansas State: 1.8
Steals (L5)
+26.0% more
Troy: 8.7
vs
Arkansas State: 6.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.1%
Troy: 44.3%
vs
Arkansas State: 31.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Troy: 48.6%
vs
Arkansas State: 43.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARST Score
82.0
74
TROY Score
87.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.3 / 31.2
38.0 / 42.0
Assists
17.1 / 16.4
25.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.3 / 1.8
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 43.2
56.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
62.4 / 76.6
90.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
36.8 / 45.1
38.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.7 / 6.9
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 15.8
7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
TROY
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
ARST
TROY
ARST
ML
59%
20-14
48%
15-16
61%
20-13
53%
16-14
ATS
65%
22-12
58%
18-13
61%
20-13
53%
16-14
TTL
56%
19-15
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
