Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Irish @ Hokies ND @ VT

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

10-7  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 12:00 PM ET
Cassell Coliseum
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

HOKIESVT

13-5  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
📊
HOKIES
100%
FIGHTING IRISH --
HOKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Fighting IrishND (-3.5) 0 HokiesVT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Irish Cover

34.5%

Hokies Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VT +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VT)

ND By 1-7 points

27.4%

ND By 8-14 points

21.6%

VT By 1-7 points

20.1%

VT By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
76
NOTRE DAME
72
VIRGINIA TECH
Simulated Score
68
NOTRE DAME
72
VIRGINIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hokies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hokies (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Hokies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 ND @ VT 76 - 89
Feb 8, 2025 VT @ ND 65 - 63
Mar 9, 2024 ND @ VT 76 - 82
Feb 10, 2024 VT @ ND 66 - 74
Mar 7, 2023 ND @ VT 64 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +19.9% more
Notre Dame: 13.8 vs Virginia Tech: 11.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Notre Dame: 34.8% vs Virginia Tech: 31.0%
Steals (L5) +120.9% more
Virginia Tech: 6.6 vs Notre Dame: 3.0
Assists (L5) +39.3% more
Virginia Tech: 12.7 vs Notre Dame: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 76.0 76
VT Score 72.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 34.8 35.0 / 25.0
Assists 12.7 / 9.1 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.7 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 43.3 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 71.6 / 66.5 88.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 37.1 32.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.6 / 3.0 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 13.8 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
VT Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
VT Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
ND
VT
ND
ML
53% 17-15
65% 20-11
72% 23-9
77% 24-7
ATS
59% 19-13
55% 17-14
72% 23-9
77% 24-7
TTL
69% 22-10
68% 21-10
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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