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EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

12-6  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 2:00 PM ET
Pete Hanna Center
View Odds Details →

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

9-9  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Samford)
BuccaneersETSU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsSAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

0.8%

Bulldogs Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAM -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)

ETSU By 1-7 points

0.6%

ETSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

SAM By 1-7 points

4.0%

SAM By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
57
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
81
SAMFORD
Simulated Score
72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
78
SAMFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 SAM @ ETSU 82 - 72
Jan 17, 2026 ETSU @ SAM 76 - 75
Feb 8, 2025 SAM @ ETSU 59 - 66
Jan 18, 2025 ETSU @ SAM 65 - 60
Mar 11, 2024 ETSU @ SAM 69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +15.0% more
Samford: 15.6 vs East Tennessee State: 13.6
Blocks (L5) +14.4% more
Samford: 3.7 vs East Tennessee State: 3.3
Rebounding (L5) +13.4% more
Samford: 35.2 vs East Tennessee State: 31.1
Steals (L5) +60.5% more
East Tennessee State: 9.8 vs Samford: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score 57.0 76
SAM Score 81.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 34.0 44.0 / 50.0
Assists 15.6 / 13.6 17.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.3 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 48.4 45.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 70.4 / 76.7 85.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 31.1 25.0 / 30.0
Steals 3.9 / 9.8 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 8.3 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
2%MONEY98%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
SAM
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAM
ETSU
SAM
ETSU
ML
65% 20-11
42% 14-19
68% 21-10
70% 23-10
ATS
68% 21-10
58% 19-14
68% 21-10
70% 23-10
TTL
35% 11-20
45% 15-18
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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