ST. JOHN'S
RED STORMSJU
12-5 | Road
86
VILLANOVA
WILDCATSVILL
14-3 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
RED STORM
0%
WILDCATS
100%
RED STORM
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (St. John's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SJU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)
SJU By 1-7 points
5.8%
SJU By 8-14 points
15.3%
VILL By 1-7 points
1.1%
VILL By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
St. John's
74
ST. JOHN'S
Villanova
52
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
St. John's
72
ST. JOHN'S
Villanova
75
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Storm
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Storm (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
VILL @ SJU
57 - 89
Jan 17, 2026
SJU @ VILL
86 - 79
Feb 12, 2025
SJU @ VILL
71 - 73
Jan 11, 2025
VILL @ SJU
68 - 80
Jan 24, 2024
VILL @ SJU
50 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+40.7% more
St. John's: 4.0
vs
Villanova: 2.4
Steals (L5)
+17.6% more
St. John's: 8.5
vs
Villanova: 7.0
Rebounding (L5)
+16.2% more
St. John's: 38.0
vs
Villanova: 31.9
Assists (L5)
+8.9% more
St. John's: 17.5
vs
Villanova: 15.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SJU Score
74.0
86
VILL Score
52.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.1 / 36.3
42.0 / 33.0
Assists
15.9 / 17.5
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.4 / 4.0
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 47.6
46.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
79.3 / 77.0
75.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 38.0
28.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.5
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 9.7
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
VILL
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJU
Advantage
22-13-1
(62.9%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
VILL
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9%
Total +/-: -3.6
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
SJU
VILL
SJU
ML
44%
14-18
62%
18-11
72%
23-9
62%
18-11
ATS
56%
18-14
66%
19-10
72%
23-9
62%
18-11
TTL
41%
13-19
59%
17-12
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
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