UC IRVINE
ANTEATERSUCI
12-6 | Road
72
UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
10-7 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
ANTEATERS
0%
AGGIES
100%
ANTEATERS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
UC IRVINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (UC Irvine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCI -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCI)
UCI By 1-7 points
26.8%
UCI By 8-14 points
24.3%
UCD By 1-7 points
16.9%
UCD By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Irvine
85
UC IRVINE
UC Davis
79
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
UC Irvine
71
UC IRVINE
UC Davis
65
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Anteaters
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Anteaters
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Anteaters (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Anteaters (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
UCD @ UCI
69 - 79
Jan 17, 2026
UCI @ UCD
72 - 75
Mar 6, 2025
UCI @ UCD
88 - 59
Feb 1, 2025
UCD @ UCI
66 - 73
Jan 20, 2024
UCI @ UCD
52 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+71.3% more
UC Irvine: 6.4
vs
UC Davis: 1.8
Assists (L5)
+32.6% more
UC Davis: 16.3
vs
UC Irvine: 12.3
Turnovers (L5)
+13.7% more
UC Davis: 14.6
vs
UC Irvine: 12.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.3%
UC Davis: 76.8%
vs
UC Irvine: 73.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCI Score
85.0
72
UCD Score
79.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 35.2
41.0 / 33.0
Assists
16.3 / 12.3
14.0 / 11.0
Blocks
1.8 / 6.4
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 45.4
39.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
76.8 / 73.5
67.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
37.8 / 39.8
35.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.0 / 8.1
9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 12.8
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCI
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
UCD
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCI
16-16-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UCI
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -2.8
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
UCI
UCD
UCI
ML
58%
19-14
57%
20-15
64%
21-12
53%
18-16
ATS
61%
20-13
63%
22-13
64%
21-12
53%
18-16
TTL
61%
20-13
57%
20-15
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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