PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
16-1 | Road
69
USC
TROJANSUSC
14-3 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
BOILERMAKERS
0%
TROJANS
100%
BOILERMAKERS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-50.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +50.0 points (Purdue)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PUR -50.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)
PUR By 1-7 points
0.0%
PUR By 8-14 points
0.0%
USC By 1-7 points
0.0%
USC By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue
93
PURDUE
USC
43
USC
Simulated Score
Purdue
75
PURDUE
USC
70
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Boilermakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -50.0
D
Sim
Boilermakers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
PUR @ USC
69 - 64
Mar 13, 2025
USC @ PUR
71 - 76
Feb 7, 2025
USC @ PUR
72 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+19.1% more
Purdue: 21.6
vs
USC: 17.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.2%
Purdue: 39.0%
vs
USC: 27.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.5%
Purdue: 54.2%
vs
USC: 45.7%
Blocks (L5)
+111.4% more
USC: 5.0
vs
Purdue: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PUR Score
93.0
69
USC Score
43.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.8 / 39.0
15.0 / 33.0
Assists
17.4 / 21.6
16.0 / 17.0
Blocks
5.0 / 2.4
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 54.2
46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 71.5
36.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 31.5
40.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.7 / 6.4
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 8.5
13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
Advantage
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
USC
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
Advantage
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
PUR
USC
PUR
ML
52%
16-15
67%
26-13
58%
18-13
66%
25-13
ATS
68%
21-10
64%
25-14
58%
18-13
66%
25-13
TTL
68%
21-10
51%
20-19
100%
31-0
100%
38-0
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