Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rainbow Warriors @ Gauchos HAW @ UCSB

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

13-3  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 9:00 PM ET
The Thunderdome
View Odds Details →

UC SANTA BARBARA

GAUCHOSUCSB

10-7  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
RAINBOW WARRIORS
0%
📊
GAUCHOS
100%
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
GAUCHOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Hawai'i)
Rainbow WarriorsHAW (-3.5) 0 GauchosUCSB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rainbow Warriors Cover

100.0%

Gauchos Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HAW -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

HAW By 1-7 points

0.4%

HAW By 8-14 points

2.2%

UCSB By 1-7 points

0.0%

UCSB By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
98
HAWAI'I
64
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
71
HAWAI'I
74
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rainbow Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gauchos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rainbow Warriors (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim Gauchos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 UCSB @ HAW 75 - 78
Jan 17, 2026 HAW @ UCSB 62 - 77
Feb 8, 2025 HAW @ UCSB 72 - 76
Jan 2, 2025 UCSB @ HAW 64 - 61
Feb 17, 2024 HAW @ UCSB 71 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.1% more
Hawai'i: 6.1 vs UC Santa Barbara: 3.1
Steals (L5) +46.0% more
Hawai'i: 8.6 vs UC Santa Barbara: 4.7
Rebounding (L5) +13.9% more
Hawai'i: 36.5 vs UC Santa Barbara: 31.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.7%
UC Santa Barbara: 38.5% vs Hawai'i: 29.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 98.0 62
UCSB Score 64.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 29.8 39.0 / 36.0
Assists 14.7 / 15.7 10.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.1 / 6.1 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 47.8 55.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 75.7 80.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 36.5 32.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.7 / 8.6 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 13.0 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
UCSB
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
UCSB Advantage
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
HAW
UCSB
HAW
ML
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
72% 23-9
68% 21-10
ATS
62% 20-12
67% 22-11
72% 23-9
68% 21-10
TTL
47% 15-17
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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