Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Titans @ Highlanders CSUF @ UCR

CAL STATE FULLERTON

TITANSCSUF

8-11  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 8:00 PM ET
SRC Arena
View Odds Details →

UC RIVERSIDE

HIGHLANDERSUCR

6-12  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
100%
📊
HIGHLANDERS
0%
TITANS --
HIGHLANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
UC RIVERSIDE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (UC Riverside)
TitansCSUF (-3.5) 0 HighlandersUCR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

27.4%

Highlanders Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCR)

CSUF By 1-7 points

16.9%

CSUF By 8-14 points

6.8%

UCR By 1-7 points

26.8%

UCR By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
69
CAL STATE FULLERTON
75
UC RIVERSIDE
Simulated Score
68
CAL STATE FULLERTON
72
UC RIVERSIDE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Highlanders Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Highlanders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Highlanders (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Highlanders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 UCR @ CSUF 72 - 78
Jan 17, 2026 CSUF @ UCR 72 - 81
Mar 8, 2025 UCR @ CSUF 64 - 59
Dec 7, 2024 CSUF @ UCR 68 - 75
Mar 7, 2024 CSUF @ UCR 74 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +9.6%
UC Riverside: 75.1% vs Cal State Fullerton: 65.5%
Steals (L5) +50.8% more
Cal State Fullerton: 9.1 vs UC Riverside: 4.5
Assists (L5) +33.0% more
Cal State Fullerton: 15.3 vs UC Riverside: 10.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.5%
Cal State Fullerton: 37.9% vs UC Riverside: 28.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSUF Score 69.0 72
UCR Score 75.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.4 / 37.9 33.0 / 16.0
Assists 10.3 / 15.3 16.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.0 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 39.8 / 43.4 51.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 65.5 82.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 32.9 38.0 / 32.0
Steals 4.5 / 9.1 5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 11.9 17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUF Advantage
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
UCR
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUF Advantage
19-11-2 (63.3%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
UCR
14-14-2 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: +0.6
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCR
CSUF
UCR
CSUF
ML
66% 21-11
68% 23-11
75% 24-8
76% 26-8
ATS
59% 19-13
68% 23-11
75% 24-8
76% 26-8
TTL
66% 21-11
59% 20-14
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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