Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lobos @ Aztecs UNM @ SDSU

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

14-3  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Viejas Arena
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

12-4  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
0%
📊
AZTECS
100%
LOBOS --
AZTECS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (New Mexico)
LobosUNM (-3.5) 0 AztecsSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lobos Cover

99.7%

Aztecs Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNM -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

UNM By 1-7 points

1.7%

UNM By 8-14 points

6.8%

SDSU By 1-7 points

0.2%

SDSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
NEW MEXICO
42
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
66
NEW MEXICO
71
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lobos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aztecs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lobos (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Aztecs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UNM @ SDSU 62 - 64
Feb 28, 2026 SDSU @ UNM 76 - 81
Jan 17, 2026 UNM @ SDSU 79 - 83
Feb 25, 2025 UNM @ SDSU 65 - 73
Jan 11, 2025 SDSU @ UNM 48 - 62
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.8%
New Mexico: 41.3% vs San Diego State: 34.5%
Blocks (L5) +50.0% more
San Diego State: 5.1 vs New Mexico: 3.4
Assists (L5) +11.7% more
San Diego State: 16.2 vs New Mexico: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 70.0 79
SDSU Score 42.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 41.3 41.0 / 40.0
Assists 16.2 / 14.5 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 5.1 / 3.4 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 49.4 49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 74.7 73.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 37.6 37.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.4 / 7.9 13.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 10.1 16.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
SDSU
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
UNM
SDSU
UNM
ML
62% 20-12
57% 21-16
72% 23-9
74% 25-9
ATS
69% 22-10
57% 21-16
72% 23-9
74% 25-9
TTL
75% 24-8
41% 15-22
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Mountain West Media Days: Eric Olen Earns High Praise from Rival…
yahoo 19 hours, 53 minutes ago
SDSU's Nick Anderson Making Speedy Recovery from ACL Surgery, Ey…
headtopics 6 days, 19 hours ago
Steve Alford to Retire After 36-Year Coaching Career, Final Seas…
santafenewmexican 1 week, 6 days ago
Steve Alford to Retire After 2026-27 Season at Nevada, Ending 36…
yahoo 1 week, 6 days ago
Steve Alford to Retire After 36-Year Coaching Career, Concluding…
ctinsider 2 weeks ago