Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Blue Raiders MOST @ MTSU

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

10-7  |  Road

87
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 6:00 PM ET
Murphy Center
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

10-7  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
BEARS --
BLUE RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 Blue RaidersMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

38.2%

Blue Raiders Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTSU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

MOST By 1-7 points

27.2%

MOST By 8-14 points

20.1%

MTSU By 1-7 points

21.6%

MTSU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
78
MISSOURI STATE
75
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
68
MISSOURI STATE
72
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Blue Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 MTSU @ MOST 75 - 63
Jan 17, 2026 MOST @ MTSU 87 - 90
Dec 5, 2023 MOST @ MTSU 73 - 77
Nov 19, 2022 MTSU @ MOST 51 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +18.1% more
Missouri State: 7.0 vs Middle Tennessee: 5.7
Assists (L5) +16.9% more
Missouri State: 16.1 vs Middle Tennessee: 13.4
Turnovers (L5) +10.6% more
Missouri State: 12.8 vs Middle Tennessee: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5) +5.3%
Missouri State: 68.2% vs Middle Tennessee: 62.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 78.0 87
MTSU Score 75.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 32.2 50.0 / 44.0
Assists 13.4 / 16.1 17.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.8 10.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 44.2 53.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 62.9 / 68.2 78.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 37.4 / 34.5 36.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.7 / 7.0 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 12.8 18.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
MTSU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
MOST
MTSU
MOST
ML
56% 18-14
65% 22-12
69% 22-10
62% 21-13
ATS
75% 24-8
68% 23-11
69% 22-10
62% 21-13
TTL
53% 17-15
44% 15-19
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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