Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dukes @ Thundering Herd JMU @ MRSH

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

9-9  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 4:00 PM ET
Cam Henderson Center
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

11-7  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
100%
📊
THUNDERING HERD
0%
DUKES --
THUNDERING HERD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Marshall)
DukesJMU (-3.5) 0 Thundering HerdMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

46.0%

Thundering Herd Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

JMU By 1-7 points

24.3%

JMU By 8-14 points

13.7%

MRSH By 1-7 points

26.2%

MRSH By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
84
JAMES MADISON
85
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
78
JAMES MADISON
72
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thundering Herd Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thundering Herd (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Dukes (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 JMU @ MRSH 72 - 77
Jan 7, 2026 MRSH @ JMU 66 - 64
Jan 16, 2025 MRSH @ JMU 64 - 67
Jan 9, 2025 JMU @ MRSH 78 - 80
Mar 9, 2024 MRSH @ JMU 64 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +97.3% more
Marshall: 7.9 vs James Madison: 4.0
Assists (L5) +33.5% more
Marshall: 15.0 vs James Madison: 11.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.9%
Marshall: 41.0% vs James Madison: 32.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Marshall: 44.4% vs James Madison: 42.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 84.0 72
MRSH Score 85.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.0 / 32.1 30.0 / 39.0
Assists 15.0 / 11.3 10.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.9 / 4.2 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 42.6 41.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 66.2 / 70.3 82.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 36.5 45.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.9 / 4.0 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 11.1 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
JMU
MRSH
JMU
ML
70% 21-9
64% 21-12
62% 18-11
66% 21-11
ATS
70% 21-9
67% 22-11
62% 18-11
66% 21-11
TTL
50% 15-15
67% 22-11
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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