Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Minutemen @ Huskies MASS @ NIU

MASSACHUSETTS

MINUTEMENMASS

11-7  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 3:00 PM ET
NIU Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

HUSKIESNIU

5-11  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
MINUTEMEN
100%
📊
HUSKIES
0%
MINUTEMEN --
HUSKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Northern Illinois)
MinutemenMASS (-3.5) 0 HuskiesNIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Minutemen Cover

1.4%

Huskies Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NIU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

MASS By 1-7 points

1.1%

MASS By 8-14 points

0.1%

NIU By 1-7 points

5.8%

NIU By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
60
MASSACHUSETTS
82
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
68
MASSACHUSETTS
72
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Huskies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Huskies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Huskies (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Huskies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 MASS @ NIU 68 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.0% more
Northern Illinois: 17.1 vs Massachusetts: 11.9
Assists (L5) +28.4% more
Massachusetts: 17.7 vs Northern Illinois: 12.7
Blocks (L5) +19.4% more
Massachusetts: 2.7 vs Northern Illinois: 2.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.5%
Massachusetts: 38.4% vs Northern Illinois: 28.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MASS Score 60.0 68
NIU Score 82.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.9 / 38.4 24.0 / 37.0
Assists 12.7 / 17.7 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.7 2.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 39.6 / 47.7 36.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 64.6 / 73.6 70.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 36.0 41.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.5 13.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 17.1 / 11.9 14.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
99%TICKETS1%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
NIU
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
NIU Advantage
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
20-12-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.5
NIU
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
MASS
NIU
MASS
ML
67% 20-10
44% 14-18
66% 19-10
68% 21-10
ATS
63% 19-11
47% 15-17
66% 19-10
68% 21-10
TTL
67% 20-10
56% 18-14
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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