FLORIDA
GATORSFLA
12-5 | Road
98
VANDERBILT
COMMODORESVAN
16-1 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
GATORS
0%
COMMODORES
100%
GATORS
--
COMMODORES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FLA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
FLA By 1-7 points
27.2%
FLA By 8-14 points
20.1%
VAN By 1-7 points
21.6%
VAN By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
95
FLORIDA
Vanderbilt
92
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
Florida
68
FLORIDA
Vanderbilt
75
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Gators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Commodores
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Gators (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Commodores (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o166.5
Win
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim
u166.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
VAN @ FLA
91 - 74
Jan 17, 2026
FLA @ VAN
98 - 94
Feb 4, 2025
VAN @ FLA
75 - 86
Mar 9, 2024
FLA @ VAN
78 - 79
Feb 24, 2024
VAN @ FLA
64 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+27.4% more
Florida: 45.3
vs
Vanderbilt: 32.9
Assists (L5)
+14.1% more
Florida: 17.0
vs
Vanderbilt: 14.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Florida: 49.6%
vs
Vanderbilt: 44.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Vanderbilt: 34.3%
vs
Florida: 27.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
95.0
98
VAN Score
92.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 27.7
36.0 / 38.0
Assists
14.6 / 17.0
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.1 / 5.4
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 49.6
51.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
76.7 / 73.7
91.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 45.3
26.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.3 / 8.6
3.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 9.7
4.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FLA
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
VAN
27-9-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FLA
Advantage
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
VAN
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8%
Total +/-: -1.9
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
FLA
VAN
FLA
ML
69%
25-11
77%
27-8
56%
18-14
63%
22-13
ATS
78%
28-8
69%
24-11
56%
18-14
63%
22-13
TTL
58%
21-15
63%
22-13
100%
32-0
100%
35-0
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