IOWA STATE
CYCLONESISU
16-1 | Road
70
CINCINNATI
BEARCATSCIN
9-8 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
CYCLONES
100%
BEARCATS
0%
CYCLONES
--
BEARCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
ISU By 1-7 points
23.0%
ISU By 8-14 points
12.2%
CIN By 1-7 points
26.8%
CIN By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa State
55
IOWA STATE
Cincinnati
57
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Iowa State
65
IOWA STATE
Cincinnati
72
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bearcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bearcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bearcats (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Bearcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
ISU @ CIN
70 - 79
Mar 12, 2025
CIN @ ISU
56 - 76
Feb 15, 2025
CIN @ ISU
70 - 81
Feb 13, 2024
ISU @ CIN
68 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+16.1% more
Cincinnati: 4.0
vs
Iowa State: 3.4
Assists (L5)
+13.0% more
Cincinnati: 17.7
vs
Iowa State: 15.7
Turnovers (L5)
+14.1% more
Iowa State: 11.2
vs
Cincinnati: 9.6
Rebounding (L5)
+13.5% more
Iowa State: 37.8
vs
Cincinnati: 32.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ISU Score
55.0
70
CIN Score
57.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
24.6 / 35.2
29.0 / 43.0
Assists
17.7 / 15.7
15.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.0 / 3.4
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 44.2
43.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
64.1 / 63.9
75.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
32.7 / 37.8
39.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.4 / 7.9
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 11.2
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
Advantage
29-8-0
(78.4%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
CIN
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU
Advantage
22-14-1
(61.1%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
CIN
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8%
Total +/-: -1.4
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ISU
CIN
ISU
ML
67%
22-11
57%
21-16
74%
23-8
76%
26-8
ATS
64%
21-12
62%
23-14
74%
23-8
76%
26-8
TTL
67%
22-11
54%
20-17
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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