NORTHERN IOWA
PANTHERSUNI
12-6 | Road
44
VALPARAISO
BEACONSVAL
8-10 | Home
54
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
BEACONS
100%
PANTHERS
--
BEACONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Northern Iowa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNI -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)
UNI By 1-7 points
8.0%
UNI By 8-14 points
18.6%
VAL By 1-7 points
1.7%
VAL By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Iowa
84
NORTHERN IOWA
Valparaiso
64
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
Northern Iowa
78
NORTHERN IOWA
Valparaiso
65
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Panthers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
UNI @ VAL
44 - 54
Dec 29, 2025
VAL @ UNI
48 - 58
Mar 7, 2025
VAL @ UNI
64 - 63
Jan 4, 2025
UNI @ VAL
73 - 80
Feb 27, 2024
VAL @ UNI
54 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.2%
Northern Iowa: 73.7%
vs
Valparaiso: 69.5%
Turnovers (L5)
+37.6% more
Valparaiso: 12.0
vs
Northern Iowa: 8.7
Blocks (L5)
+24.2% more
Valparaiso: 2.8
vs
Northern Iowa: 2.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+16.3%
Valparaiso: 43.1%
vs
Northern Iowa: 26.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNI Score
84.0
44
VAL Score
64.0
54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.1 / 26.9
26.0 / 20.0
Assists
12.0 / 11.9
4.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.2
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 42.2
33.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
69.5 / 73.7
75.0 / 29.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 33.6
40.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.2 / 5.0
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 8.7
7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNI
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
VAL
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNI
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
VAL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
UNI
VAL
UNI
ML
48%
16-17
51%
18-17
61%
20-13
56%
19-15
ATS
52%
17-16
49%
17-18
61%
20-13
56%
19-15
TTL
61%
20-13
69%
24-11
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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