NORTH FLORIDA
OSPREYSUNF
3-15 | Road
69
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BEARSCARK
8-10 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
OSPREYS
100%
BEARS
0%
OSPREYS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Central Arkansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CARK -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)
UNF By 1-7 points
0.0%
UNF By 8-14 points
0.0%
CARK By 1-7 points
0.0%
CARK By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
North Florida
60
NORTH FLORIDA
Central Arkansas
105
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
North Florida
70
NORTH FLORIDA
Central Arkansas
76
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bears (-12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o164.5
Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
UNF @ CARK
69 - 98
Feb 15, 2025
UNF @ CARK
83 - 84
Jan 16, 2025
CARK @ UNF
80 - 92
Feb 10, 2024
CARK @ UNF
79 - 77
Jan 26, 2023
UNF @ CARK
85 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+50.0% more
Central Arkansas: 6.5
vs
North Florida: 4.3
Rebounding (L5)
+11.9% more
Central Arkansas: 36.8
vs
North Florida: 32.9
Blocks (L5)
+20.6% more
North Florida: 1.3
vs
Central Arkansas: 1.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.8%
North Florida: 87.2%
vs
Central Arkansas: 73.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNF Score
60.0
69
CARK Score
105.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 36.7
37.0 / 32.0
Assists
16.4 / 16.9
25.0 / 13.0
Blocks
1.0 / 1.3
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 46.7
50.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 87.2
78.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
36.8 / 32.9
45.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.5 / 4.3
6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 10.2
7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNF
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: +1.1
CARK
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNF
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: +1.1
CARK
Advantage
19-10-3
(65.5%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.5
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CARK
UNF
CARK
UNF
ML
67%
22-11
69%
22-10
70%
23-10
66%
21-11
ATS
61%
20-13
69%
22-10
70%
23-10
66%
21-11
TTL
50%
16-16-1
66%
21-11
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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