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CENTRAL CONNECTICUT

BLUE DEVILSCCSU

9-6  |  Road

98
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 2:00 PM ET
DeGol Arena
View Odds Details →

SAINT FRANCIS

RED FLASHSFPA

4-13  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
100%
📊
RED FLASH
0%
BLUE DEVILS --
RED FLASH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
103.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SAINT FRANCIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Saint Francis)
Blue DevilsCCSU (-3.5) 0 Red FlashSFPA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Devils Cover

30.9%

Red Flash Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SFPA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFPA)

CCSU By 1-7 points

18.6%

CCSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

SFPA By 1-7 points

27.2%

SFPA By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
49
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
54
SAINT FRANCIS
Simulated Score
68
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
72
SAINT FRANCIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Flash Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Flash Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Flash (+6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Red Flash (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 103.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 SFPA @ CCSU 64 - 69
Jan 17, 2026 CCSU @ SFPA 98 - 90
Mar 11, 2025 SFPA @ CCSU 46 - 43
Feb 15, 2025 SFPA @ CCSU 67 - 83
Jan 3, 2025 CCSU @ SFPA 74 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +19.7% more
Saint Francis: 8.4 vs Central Connecticut: 7.0
Assists (L5) +13.9% more
Saint Francis: 13.1 vs Central Connecticut: 11.5
Turnovers (L5) +10.8% more
Saint Francis: 12.2 vs Central Connecticut: 11.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Saint Francis: 38.6% vs Central Connecticut: 35.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CCSU Score 49.0 98
SFPA Score 54.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 35.7 39.0 / 58.0
Assists 13.1 / 11.5 19.0 / 21.0
Blocks 1.6 / 4.8 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 46.2 46.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 78.3 73.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 27.7 / 35.1 37.0 / 27.0
Steals 8.4 / 7.0 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 11.0 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CCSU Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
SFPA
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CCSU Advantage
14-13-1 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
SFPA
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CCSU
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +3.0
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFPA
CCSU
SFPA
CCSU
ML
68% 21-10
57% 17-13
67% 20-10
57% 17-13
ATS
68% 21-10
63% 19-11
67% 20-10
57% 17-13
TTL
58% 18-13
60% 18-12
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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