ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
15-4 | Road
65
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
BISONNDSU
15-5 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
0%
BISON
100%
TOMMIES
--
BISON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
182.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STMN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)
STMN By 1-7 points
26.8%
STMN By 8-14 points
24.3%
NDSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
NDSU By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
94
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
North Dakota State
88
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
65
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
North Dakota State
78
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tommies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bison
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tommies (-2)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Bison (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.0
Loss
Proj Total: 182.0
D
Sim
u151.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
NDSU @ STMN
62 - 84
Jan 17, 2026
STMN @ NDSU
65 - 68
Feb 2, 2025
NDSU @ STMN
62 - 79
Jan 2, 2025
STMN @ NDSU
89 - 85
Mar 10, 2024
NDSU @ STMN
58 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+11.6% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 16.7
vs
North Dakota State: 14.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.7%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 46.4%
vs
North Dakota State: 38.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 56.9%
vs
North Dakota State: 49.5%
Blocks (L5)
+12.7% more
North Dakota State: 2.7
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STMN Score
94.0
65
NDSU Score
88.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 46.4
31.0 / 32.0
Assists
14.8 / 16.7
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.4
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 56.9
38.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 66.0
67.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
32.0 / 30.4
40.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.7 / 8.8
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 10.0
13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
NDSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
NDSU
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
STMN
NDSU
STMN
ML
49%
17-18
64%
21-12
59%
20-14
64%
21-12
ATS
54%
19-16
70%
23-10
59%
20-14
64%
21-12
TTL
43%
15-20
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
