EASTERN MICHIGAN
EAGLESEMU
9-9 | Road
79
BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
11-6 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
FALCONS
0%
EAGLES
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Bowling Green)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BGSU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)
EMU By 1-7 points
1.1%
EMU By 8-14 points
0.1%
BGSU By 1-7 points
5.8%
BGSU By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Eastern Michigan
77
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Bowling Green
99
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
Eastern Michigan
71
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Bowling Green
80
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Falcons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Falcons (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
BGSU @ EMU
77 - 69
Jan 17, 2026
EMU @ BGSU
79 - 85
Feb 25, 2025
BGSU @ EMU
65 - 60
Jan 18, 2025
EMU @ BGSU
68 - 62
Feb 17, 2024
BGSU @ EMU
60 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+85.5% more
Bowling Green: 9.4
vs
Eastern Michigan: 5.0
Turnovers (L5)
+8.9% more
Bowling Green: 12.0
vs
Eastern Michigan: 11.0
Blocks (L5)
+46.8% more
Eastern Michigan: 4.7
vs
Bowling Green: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EMU Score
77.0
79
BGSU Score
99.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.8 / 32.7
69.0 / 35.0
Assists
13.8 / 14.4
13.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.5 / 4.7
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 47.5
53.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
72.8 / 72.2
76.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
33.7 / 35.2
30.0 / 29.0
Steals
9.4 / 5.0
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 11.0
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
BGSU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU
Advantage
20-10-0
(66.7%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
BGSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0%
Total +/-: -3.6
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
EMU
BGSU
EMU
ML
66%
21-11
65%
20-11
56%
18-14
70%
21-9
ATS
72%
23-9
65%
20-11
56%
18-14
70%
21-9
TTL
53%
17-15
71%
22-9
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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