Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Spartans @ Huskies MSU @ WASH

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

15-2  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 6:00 PM ET
Alaska Airlines Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

HUSKIESWASH

10-7  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
HUSKIES
0%
SPARTANS --
HUSKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Washington)
SpartansMSU (-3.5) 0 HuskiesWASH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

30.9%

Huskies Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WASH -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

MSU By 1-7 points

18.6%

MSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

WASH By 1-7 points

27.2%

WASH By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
79
MICHIGAN STATE
84
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
68
MICHIGAN STATE
75
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Huskies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Huskies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Huskies (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Huskies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 MSU @ WASH 80 - 63
Jan 9, 2025 WASH @ MSU 54 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +55.1% more
Washington: 5.4 vs Michigan State: 3.5
Free Throw % (L5) +6.7%
Washington: 81.6% vs Michigan State: 74.9%
Turnovers (L5) +31.2% more
Michigan State: 14.6 vs Washington: 10.0
Assists (L5) +25.8% more
Michigan State: 17.4 vs Washington: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 79.0 80
WASH Score 84.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.6 / 32.8 16.0 / 32.0
Assists 12.9 / 17.4 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.4 / 3.5 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 48.4 47.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 81.6 / 74.9 77.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 40.6 28.0 / 39.0
Steals 4.6 / 6.2 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 14.6 12.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
WASH
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
WASH Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
WASH
15-17-1
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WASH
MSU
WASH
MSU
ML
45% 15-18
71% 25-10
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
ATS
48% 16-17
71% 25-10
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
TTL
70% 23-10
49% 17-18
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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