ALABAMA
CRIMSON TIDEALA
12-5 | Road
83
OKLAHOMA
SOONERSOU
11-6 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
SOONERS
100%
CRIMSON TIDE
--
SOONERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
OKLAHOMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OU)
ALA By 1-7 points
26.8%
ALA By 8-14 points
18.6%
OU By 1-7 points
23.0%
OU By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Alabama
77
ALABAMA
Oklahoma
75
OKLAHOMA
Simulated Score
Alabama
75
ALABAMA
Oklahoma
78
OKLAHOMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Crimson Tide
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sooners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sooners (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Sooners (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u177.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u177.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
ALA @ OU
83 - 81
Jan 4, 2025
OU @ ALA
79 - 107
Jan 28, 2023
ALA @ OU
69 - 93
Jan 30, 2021
ALA @ OU
61 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.5% more
Alabama: 5.5
vs
Oklahoma: 3.5
Rebounding (L5)
+16.8% more
Alabama: 44.0
vs
Oklahoma: 36.6
Assists (L5)
+13.6% more
Alabama: 14.8
vs
Oklahoma: 12.8
Steals (L5)
+9.4% more
Alabama: 5.0
vs
Oklahoma: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALA Score
77.0
83
OU Score
75.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.8 / 34.8
25.0 / 30.0
Assists
12.8 / 14.8
13.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.5 / 5.5
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 43.3
39.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 76.8
86.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 44.0
45.0 / 43.0
Steals
4.5 / 5.0
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 7.9
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA
Advantage
25-10-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
OU
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
OU
Advantage
17-19-1
(47.2%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
OU
19-18-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OU
ALA
OU
ALA
ML
78%
28-8
63%
22-13
59%
20-14
58%
19-14
ATS
72%
26-10
60%
21-14
59%
20-14
58%
19-14
TTL
75%
27-9
63%
22-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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