VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
15-2 | Road
72
SMU
MUSTANGSSMU
13-4 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
MUSTANGS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (SMU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)
UVA By 1-7 points
6.8%
UVA By 8-14 points
1.7%
SMU By 1-7 points
18.6%
SMU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Virginia
80
VIRGINIA
SMU
93
SMU
Simulated Score
Virginia
68
VIRGINIA
SMU
65
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
UVA @ SMU
72 - 68
Jan 15, 2025
SMU @ UVA
54 - 52
Dec 7, 2024
UVA @ SMU
51 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.5% more
SMU: 6.2
vs
Virginia: 4.8
Turnovers (L5)
+12.4% more
SMU: 13.2
vs
Virginia: 11.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
SMU: 50.3%
vs
Virginia: 44.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.4%
SMU: 78.0%
vs
Virginia: 74.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVA Score
80.0
72
SMU Score
93.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 35.0
38.0 / 39.0
Assists
15.0 / 17.2
12.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.8 / 7.2
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.3 / 44.9
43.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 74.6
79.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
35.8 / 41.8
32.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.2 / 4.8
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 11.7
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
SMU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA
Advantage
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
SMU
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
UVA
SMU
UVA
ML
59%
20-14
67%
24-12
73%
24-9
72%
26-10
ATS
62%
21-13
75%
27-9
73%
24-9
72%
26-10
TTL
56%
19-15
53%
19-17
100%
33-0
100%
36-0
Contextual Game News
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