Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Pacers NO @ IND

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

10-33  |  Road

119
FINAL
Fri, Jan 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

9-32  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
PELICANS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (New Orleans)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

72.6%

Pacers Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NO By 1-7 points

26.8%

NO By 8-14 points

24.3%

IND By 1-7 points

16.9%

IND By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
119
NEW ORLEANS
113
INDIANA
Simulated Score
113
NEW ORLEANS
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u241.0 Loss
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim u241.0 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 16, 2026 NO @ IND 119 - 127
Dec 20, 2025 IND @ NO 109 - 128
Dec 15, 2024 NO @ IND 104 - 119
Nov 25, 2024 NO @ IND 110 - 114
Nov 1, 2024 IND @ NO 118 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +22.3% more
New Orleans: 6.3 vs Indiana: 4.9
Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
New Orleans: 47.3% vs Indiana: 44.1%
Assists (L5) +17.5% more
Indiana: 29.1 vs New Orleans: 24.8
Steals (L5) +12.1% more
Indiana: 8.2 vs New Orleans: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 119.0 119
IND Score 113.0 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 36.6 35.0 / 42.0
Assists 29.1 / 24.8 37.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.9 / 6.3 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 47.3 51.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 76.9 67.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 43.5 / 46.3 43.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.2 / 7.3 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 14.1 7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
NO
IND
NO
ML
48% 47-50
62% 98-61
54% 45-38
58% 48-35
ATS
59% 57-40
68% 107-51-1
54% 45-38
58% 48-35
TTL
54% 52-45
75% 119-40
100% 83-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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