Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ramblers @ Flyers LUC @ DAY

LOYOLA CHICAGO

RAMBLERSLUC

5-13  |  Road

51
FINAL
Fri, Jan 16 • 8:30 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

13-4  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
RAMBLERS
100%
📊
FLYERS
0%
RAMBLERS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
104.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Dayton)
RamblersLUC (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ramblers Cover

21.2%

Flyers Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

LUC By 1-7 points

13.7%

LUC By 8-14 points

4.8%

DAY By 1-7 points

25.3%

DAY By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
48
LOYOLA CHICAGO
56
DAYTON
Simulated Score
68
LOYOLA CHICAGO
76
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flyers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 104.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 16, 2026 LUC @ DAY 51 - 78
Jan 3, 2026 DAY @ LUC 70 - 68
Feb 21, 2025 DAY @ LUC 72 - 76
Jan 18, 2025 LUC @ DAY 81 - 83
Mar 1, 2024 DAY @ LUC 72 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +105.3% more
Dayton: 9.8 vs Loyola Chicago: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +21.9%
Dayton: 81.3% vs Loyola Chicago: 59.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Dayton: 33.2% vs Loyola Chicago: 27.9%
Turnovers (L5) +29.3% more
Loyola Chicago: 13.6 vs Dayton: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LUC Score 48.0 51
DAY Score 56.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 27.9 43.0 / 24.0
Assists 14.1 / 16.0 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.5 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 45.8 44.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 81.3 / 59.4 79.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 31.0 / 33.3 34.0 / 42.0
Steals 9.8 / 4.8 11.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 13.6 11.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LUC
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -4.7
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LUC
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -4.7
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LUC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -1.9
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
LUC
DAY
LUC
ML
65% 24-13
55% 18-15
64% 23-13
50% 16-16
ATS
68% 25-12
64% 21-12
64% 23-13
50% 16-16
TTL
57% 21-16
76% 25-8
100% 36-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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