Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bobcats @ Cardinals OHIO @ BALL

OHIO

BOBCATSOHIO

10-8  |  Road

71
FINAL
Fri, Jan 16 • 8:30 PM ET
Worthen Arena
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

4-13  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
BOBCATS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Ohio)
BobcatsOHIO (-3.5) 0 CardinalsBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

97.7%

Cardinals Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OHIO -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

OHIO By 1-7 points

8.0%

OHIO By 8-14 points

18.6%

BALL By 1-7 points

1.7%

BALL By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
83
OHIO
63
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
72
OHIO
75
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bobcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bobcats (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 17, 2026 BALL @ OHIO 57 - 69
Jan 16, 2026 OHIO @ BALL 71 - 76
Jan 14, 2025 BALL @ OHIO 71 - 86
Feb 6, 2024 OHIO @ BALL 84 - 79
Mar 9, 2023 OHIO @ BALL 90 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +50.3% more
Ohio: 3.1 vs Ball State: 1.6
Turnovers (L5) +26.2% more
Ohio: 13.3 vs Ball State: 9.8
Assists (L5) +15.7% more
Ohio: 13.7 vs Ball State: 11.6
Rebounding (L5) +14.5% more
Ohio: 33.1 vs Ball State: 28.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score 83.0 71
BALL Score 63.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.7 / 34.4 37.0 / 25.0
Assists 11.6 / 13.7 11.0 / 7.0
Blocks 1.6 / 3.1 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 51.0 43.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 70.3 81.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 28.3 / 33.1 30.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.7 / 7.1 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 13.3 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -3.0
BALL
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -3.0
BALL Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
OHIO
BALL
OHIO
ML
43% 13-17
65% 20-11
62% 18-11
63% 19-11
ATS
67% 20-10
68% 21-10
62% 18-11
63% 19-11
TTL
50% 15-15
61% 19-12
100% 29-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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