Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rockets @ Golden Flashes TOL @ KENT

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

10-7  |  Road

84
FINAL
Fri, Jan 16 • 6:30 PM ET
M.A.C. Center
View Odds Details →

KENT STATE

GOLDEN FLASHESKENT

13-4  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
GOLDEN FLASHES
100%
ROCKETS --
GOLDEN FLASHES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
186.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Toledo)
RocketsTOL (-3.5) 0 Golden FlashesKENT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

99.5%

Golden Flashes Cover

0.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOL -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

TOL By 1-7 points

2.7%

TOL By 8-14 points

9.3%

KENT By 1-7 points

0.4%

KENT By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
106
TOLEDO
80
KENT STATE
Simulated Score
70
TOLEDO
73
KENT STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Flashes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Golden Flashes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o168.5 Win
Proj Total: 186.0
D
Sim u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 KENT @ TOL 75 - 72
Jan 16, 2026 TOL @ KENT 84 - 87
Feb 25, 2025 TOL @ KENT 65 - 105
Jan 21, 2025 KENT @ TOL 83 - 64
Mar 14, 2024 KENT @ TOL 67 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +37.1% more
Toledo: 7.6 vs Kent State: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
Toledo: 82.4% vs Kent State: 77.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Toledo: 49.0% vs Kent State: 46.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Toledo: 38.2% vs Kent State: 35.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 106.0 84
KENT Score 80.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 38.2 29.0 / 42.0
Assists 19.0 / 15.6 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.3 / 1.6 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 49.0 47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 82.4 72.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 40.5 / 34.3 37.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.8 / 7.6 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 9.8 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
KENT Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
KENT
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
KENT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENT
TOL
KENT
TOL
ML
53% 18-16
48% 16-17
65% 22-12
61% 20-13
ATS
65% 22-12
48% 16-17
65% 22-12
61% 20-13
TTL
44% 15-19
64% 21-12
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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