TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
29-13-3 | Road
2
ST. LOUIS
BLUESSTL
18-21-8 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Joel Hofer
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 1.85 | 0.905 | -- |
| Joel Hofer | None-None | 1.85 | 0.944 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.85
GAA
1.85
0.905
Save %
Ldr 0.944
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
BLUES
100%
LIGHTNING
--
BLUES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around STL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
TB By 1 goal
19.7%
TB By 2-3 goals
29.6%
STL By 1 goal
12.1%
STL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
St. Louis
2
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lightning
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blues
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blues (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Blues (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 16, 2026
TB @ STL
2 - 3
Dec 22, 2025
STL @ TB
1 - 4
Dec 19, 2024
STL @ TB
1 - 3
Nov 5, 2024
TB @ STL
2 - 3
Dec 19, 2023
STL @ TB
1 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+70.2% more
St. Louis: 25.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 15.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+68.8% more
St. Louis: 16.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 9.9
Power Play % (L5)
+10.1%
St. Louis: 34.1%
vs
Tampa Bay: 24.0%
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.6%
St. Louis: 49.1%
vs
Tampa Bay: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
2
STL Score
2.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.8 / 9.9
10.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
49.1 / 43.5
46.2 / 53.8
Hits
25.9 / 15.2
24.0 / 12.0
Power Play %
34.1 / 24.0
0.0 / 66.7
Shots on Goal
25.4 / 27.3
21.0 / 36.0
Takeaways
3.9 / 4.2
8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
TB
STL
TB
ML
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
ATS
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
TTL
33%
1-2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2-1
100%
4-0
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