UTAH
JAZZUTAH
14-26 | Road
122
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
15-26 | Home
144
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
JAZZ
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTAH -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)
UTAH By 1-7 points
15.3%
UTAH By 8-14 points
25.3%
DAL By 1-7 points
4.8%
DAL By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
128
UTAH
Dallas
113
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Utah
118
UTAH
Dallas
106
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jazz
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jazz
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jazz (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Jazz (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o236.5
Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
UTAH @ DAL
120 - 138
Jan 15, 2026
UTAH @ DAL
122 - 144
Jan 8, 2026
DAL @ UTAH
114 - 116
Dec 15, 2025
DAL @ UTAH
133 - 140
Oct 13, 2025
DAL @ UTAH
114 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.2% more
Utah: 29.7
vs
Dallas: 22.8
Steals (L5)
+17.9% more
Utah: 8.2
vs
Dallas: 6.7
Turnovers (L5)
+17.9% more
Utah: 15.0
vs
Dallas: 12.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.5%
Utah: 82.3%
vs
Dallas: 71.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
128.0
122
DAL Score
113.0
144
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 32.7
41.0 / 28.0
Assists
22.8 / 29.7
37.0 / 33.0
Blocks
3.8 / 2.9
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 49.3
57.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 82.3
79.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
44.2 / 41.3
46.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.7 / 8.2
13.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 15.0
13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
DAL
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
UTAH
DAL
UTAH
ML
62%
63-39
60%
96-63
54%
44-37
48%
40-43
ATS
67%
68-34
68%
108-51
54%
44-37
48%
40-43
TTL
59%
60-41-1
75%
119-39-1
100%
81-0
100%
83-0
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