EASTERN KENTUCKY
COLONELSEKU
6-11 | Road
72
AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
10-5 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
0%
GOVERNORS
100%
COLONELS
--
GOVERNORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Eastern Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EKU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EKU)
EKU By 1-7 points
24.3%
EKU By 8-14 points
26.8%
APSU By 1-7 points
12.2%
APSU By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Eastern Kentucky
71
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Austin Peay
62
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
Eastern Kentucky
72
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Austin Peay
75
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Colonels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Governors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Colonels (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Governors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 28, 2026
APSU @ EKU
90 - 82
Jan 15, 2026
EKU @ APSU
72 - 74
Feb 1, 2025
APSU @ EKU
82 - 88
Jan 16, 2025
EKU @ APSU
90 - 97
Feb 28, 2024
EKU @ APSU
79 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+19.5% more
Eastern Kentucky: 9.9
vs
Austin Peay: 8.0
Steals (L5)
+91.0% more
Austin Peay: 11.7
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 6.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.6%
Austin Peay: 69.0%
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 66.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EKU Score
71.0
72
APSU Score
62.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 36.8
33.0 / 48.0
Assists
16.6 / 16.0
11.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.5
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 43.8
44.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
69.0 / 66.4
76.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 34.7
31.0 / 30.0
Steals
11.7 / 6.1
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.0 / 9.9
10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EKU
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EKU
10-19-1
(34.5%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
APSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.9
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
EKU
APSU
EKU
ML
53%
16-14
44%
14-18
59%
16-11
69%
22-10
ATS
57%
17-13
56%
18-14
59%
16-11
69%
22-10
TTL
57%
17-13
53%
17-15
100%
27-0
100%
32-0