MAINE
BLACK BEARSME
3-15 | Road
62
VERMONT
CATAMOUNTSUVM
10-7 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
BLACK BEARS
100%
CATAMOUNTS
0%
BLACK BEARS
--
CATAMOUNTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
111.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
VERMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Vermont)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVM -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVM)
ME By 1-7 points
18.6%
ME By 8-14 points
8.0%
UVM By 1-7 points
27.2%
UVM By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Maine
53
MAINE
Vermont
58
VERMONT
Simulated Score
Maine
62
MAINE
Vermont
75
VERMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u129.5
Win
Proj Total: 111.0
D
Sim
u129.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
UVM @ ME
70 - 76
Jan 15, 2026
ME @ UVM
62 - 67
Mar 11, 2025
ME @ UVM
57 - 42
Feb 15, 2025
UVM @ ME
65 - 61
Feb 1, 2025
ME @ UVM
49 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+9.1% more
Vermont: 34.8
vs
Maine: 31.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.2%
Vermont: 71.3%
vs
Maine: 63.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Vermont: 31.8%
vs
Maine: 29.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+36.8% more
Maine: 12.9
vs
Vermont: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ME Score
53.0
62
UVM Score
58.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.8 / 29.9
35.0 / 27.0
Assists
10.4 / 10.6
12.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.6
9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 45.2
49.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
71.3 / 63.1
71.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
34.8 / 31.9
37.0 / 29.0
Steals
4.7 / 6.5
1.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.2 / 12.9
8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ME
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
UVM
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ME
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
UVM
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ME
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVM
ME
UVM
ME
ML
56%
19-15
45%
14-17
65%
22-12
52%
16-15
ATS
62%
21-13
55%
17-14
65%
22-12
52%
16-15
TTL
47%
16-18
55%
17-14
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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