PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
24-16 | Road
105
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
28-10 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
PISTONS
0%
SUNS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
PHX By 1-7 points
8.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
2.2%
DET By 1-7 points
20.1%
DET By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
107
PHOENIX
Detroit
119
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Phoenix
105
PHOENIX
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (-7)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o219.0
Loss
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u219.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
DET @ PHX
96 - 114
Jan 15, 2026
PHX @ DET
105 - 108
Jan 18, 2025
PHX @ DET
125 - 121
Dec 21, 2024
DET @ PHX
133 - 125
Oct 8, 2024
PHX @ DET
105 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+184.4% more
Detroit: 10.0
vs
Phoenix: 3.5
Steals (L5)
+43.3% more
Detroit: 13.2
vs
Phoenix: 9.2
Turnovers (L5)
+29.0% more
Detroit: 17.9
vs
Phoenix: 13.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Detroit: 46.4%
vs
Phoenix: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
107.0
105
DET Score
119.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 33.5
28.0 / 37.0
Assists
26.4 / 25.5
25.0 / 21.0
Blocks
10.0 / 3.5
7.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 43.8
47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
76.2 / 83.7
62.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
43.6 / 46.8
54.0 / 41.0
Steals
13.2 / 9.2
10.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
17.9 / 13.9
17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PHX
DET
PHX
ML
55%
64-53
57%
60-45
49%
47-49
51%
45-43
ATS
53%
60-54-3
58%
59-43-3
49%
47-49
51%
45-43
TTL
60%
70-46-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
96-0
100%
88-0
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