MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
17-22 | Road
111
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
22-18 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
MAGIC
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
23.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
27.2%
ORL By 1-7 points
10.7%
ORL By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Orlando
108
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Memphis
110
MEMPHIS
Orlando
118
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (-5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u228.5
Loss
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u228.5
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 18, 2026
ORL @ MEM
109 - 126
Jan 15, 2026
MEM @ ORL
111 - 118
Feb 21, 2025
MEM @ ORL
105 - 104
Oct 26, 2024
ORL @ MEM
111 - 124
Mar 30, 2024
MEM @ ORL
88 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+15.6% more
Memphis: 51.2
vs
Orlando: 43.2
Assists (L5)
+8.3% more
Memphis: 28.8
vs
Orlando: 26.4
Turnovers (L5)
+8.0% more
Memphis: 16.5
vs
Orlando: 15.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.4%
Memphis: 82.8%
vs
Orlando: 80.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
118.0
111
ORL Score
108.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 32.8
38.0 / 47.0
Assists
26.4 / 28.8
28.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.2 / 5.3
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 43.8
43.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
80.4 / 82.8
91.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
43.2 / 51.2
54.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.6 / 6.5
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 16.5
16.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
ORL
Advantage
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
MEM
ORL
MEM
ML
61%
65-42
57%
59-44
56%
51-40
50%
41-41
ATS
64%
68-38-1
63%
65-38
56%
51-40
50%
41-41
TTL
57%
61-46
70%
71-31-1
100%
91-0
100%
82-0
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