ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
20-22 | Road
101
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
19-22 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
HAWKS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
27.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
23.0%
POR By 1-7 points
18.6%
POR By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
126
ATLANTA
Portland
121
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Atlanta
110
ATLANTA
Portland
122
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+4)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o229.0
Loss
Proj Total: 247.0
D
Sim
u229.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
POR @ ATL
101 - 135
Jan 15, 2026
ATL @ POR
101 - 117
Apr 1, 2025
POR @ ATL
127 - 113
Nov 17, 2024
ATL @ POR
110 - 114
Mar 27, 2024
POR @ ATL
106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+30.4% more
Atlanta: 11.0
vs
Portland: 7.7
Assists (L5)
+25.1% more
Atlanta: 31.0
vs
Portland: 23.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Atlanta: 46.5%
vs
Portland: 44.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Atlanta: 34.5%
vs
Portland: 32.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
126.0
101
POR Score
121.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.8 / 34.5
30.0 / 32.0
Assists
23.2 / 31.0
23.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.6
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 46.5
45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
77.6 / 68.0
71.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
43.1 / 40.2
54.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.7 / 11.0
13.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
16.8 / 9.8
15.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
ATL
POR
ATL
ML
53%
56-49
50%
52-52
55%
49-40
55%
48-40
ATS
62%
65-39-1
53%
55-48-1
55%
49-40
55%
48-40
TTL
56%
58-46-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
89-0
100%
88-0
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