BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
24-15 | Road
119
MIAMI
HEATMIA
21-19 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
HEAT
0%
CELTICS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
BOS By 1-7 points
15.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
5.8%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
116
BOSTON
Miami
123
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Boston
108
BOSTON
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.5
Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ MIA
147 - 129
Feb 6, 2026
MIA @ BOS
96 - 98
Jan 15, 2026
BOS @ MIA
119 - 114
Dec 19, 2025
MIA @ BOS
116 - 129
Apr 2, 2025
MIA @ BOS
124 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+53.2% more
Miami: 16.9
vs
Boston: 11.0
Steals (L5)
+32.6% more
Miami: 8.7
vs
Boston: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+23.4% more
Miami: 28.1
vs
Boston: 22.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Miami: 48.0%
vs
Boston: 46.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
116.0
119
MIA Score
123.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 35.7
36.0 / 33.0
Assists
28.1 / 22.8
25.0 / 22.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.8
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 46.0
45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
74.6 / 78.3
78.0 / 96.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 47.4
40.0 / 51.0
Steals
8.7 / 6.5
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
16.9 / 11.0
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
BOS
MIA
BOS
ML
48%
46-50
57%
61-46
59%
48-34
53%
47-41
ATS
51%
49-47
59%
61-43-3
59%
48-34
53%
47-41
TTL
59%
57-39
56%
60-47
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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