OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
34-7 | Road
111
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
23-14 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
ROCKETS
0%
THUNDER
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
OKC By 1-7 points
24.3%
OKC By 8-14 points
13.7%
HOU By 1-7 points
26.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
106
OKLAHOMA CITY
Houston
107
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+4)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u222.5
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Sim
u222.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
HOU @ OKC
112 - 106
Jan 15, 2026
OKC @ HOU
111 - 91
Oct 21, 2025
HOU @ OKC
124 - 125
Apr 4, 2025
OKC @ HOU
111 - 125
Mar 3, 2025
HOU @ OKC
128 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+18.3% more
Houston: 50.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 42.4
Turnovers (L5)
+13.2% more
Houston: 12.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 10.7
Blocks (L5)
+43.1% more
Oklahoma City: 8.1
vs
Houston: 4.6
Steals (L5)
+37.0% more
Oklahoma City: 9.7
vs
Houston: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
106.0
111
HOU Score
107.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.5 / 30.6
29.0 / 39.0
Assists
22.8 / 24.5
17.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.6 / 8.1
7.0 / 12.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 49.0
34.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
71.0 / 81.2
82.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
50.1 / 42.4
60.0 / 44.0
Steals
6.1 / 9.7
10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 10.7
16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
OKC
HOU
OKC
ML
61%
69-44
70%
80-34
59%
51-35
48%
46-49
ATS
62%
70-43
73%
83-30-1
59%
51-35
48%
46-49
TTL
51%
58-55
67%
76-38
100%
86-0
100%
95-0
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