MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
26-14-7 | Road
3
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
25-16-4 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jacob Fowler
#32 | G@
GOALTENDER
Colten Ellis
#92 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler | None-None | 4.13 | 0.846 | -- |
| Colten Ellis | None-None | 3.01 | 0.870 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.13
GAA
Ldr 3.01
0.846
Save %
Ldr 0.870
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
100%
SABRES
0%
CANADIENS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
MTL By 1 goal
12.1%
MTL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
BUF By 1 goal
19.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
3
MONTREAL
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 18, 2026
MTL @ BUF
3 - 2
May 16, 2026
BUF @ MTL
8 - 3
May 14, 2026
MTL @ BUF
6 - 3
May 12, 2026
BUF @ MTL
3 - 2
May 10, 2026
BUF @ MTL
2 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+10.8% more
Buffalo: 4.9
vs
Montreal: 4.4
Shots on Goal (L5)
+25.5% more
Montreal: 29.6
vs
Buffalo: 22.0
Blocked Shots (L5)
+25.3% more
Montreal: 20.0
vs
Buffalo: 14.9
Hits (L5)
+12.1% more
Montreal: 23.2
vs
Buffalo: 20.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
3.0
3
BUF Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.9 / 20.0
6.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
48.2 / 50.6
41.1 / 58.9
Hits
20.4 / 23.2
21.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
16.3 / 23.7
50.0 / 66.7
Shots on Goal
22.0 / 29.6
27.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 4.4
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
MTL
BUF
MTL
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
100%
3-0
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
Canadiens' Ivan Demidov Sidelined 2-4 Weeks with Lower-Body Inju…
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…