UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
9-6 | Road
74
BRYANT
BULLDOGSBRY
5-12 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
RETRIEVERS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
BRYANT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Bryant)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BRY -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BRY)
UMBC By 1-7 points
1.7%
UMBC By 8-14 points
0.3%
BRY By 1-7 points
8.0%
BRY By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UMBC
68
UMBC
Bryant
88
BRYANT
Simulated Score
UMBC
71
UMBC
Bryant
78
BRYANT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
BRY @ UMBC
58 - 70
Jan 15, 2026
UMBC @ BRY
74 - 79
Mar 8, 2025
UMBC @ BRY
74 - 85
Feb 15, 2025
UMBC @ BRY
79 - 81
Jan 30, 2025
BRY @ UMBC
92 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+91.3% more
Bryant: 5.7
vs
UMBC: 3.0
Steals (L5)
+54.3% more
Bryant: 5.5
vs
UMBC: 3.6
Turnovers (L5)
+46.4% more
Bryant: 11.8
vs
UMBC: 8.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.1%
UMBC: 39.5%
vs
Bryant: 26.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score
68.0
74
BRY Score
88.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.4 / 39.5
38.0 / 37.0
Assists
11.2 / 12.6
14.0 / 15.0
Blocks
5.7 / 3.0
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
36.7 / 47.5
52.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
67.4 / 72.8
67.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
32.6 / 32.5
39.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.5 / 3.6
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 8.1
15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
BRY
9-22-0
(29.0%)
Margin: -7.6
ATS +/-: -4.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
BRY
11-18-0
(37.9%)
Margin: -7.6
ATS +/-: -4.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
BRY
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BRY
UMBC
BRY
UMBC
ML
70%
21-9
58%
18-13
80%
24-6
55%
17-14
ATS
73%
22-8
68%
21-10
80%
24-6
55%
17-14
TTL
67%
20-10
39%
12-19
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
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