Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rainbow Warriors @ Mustangs HAW @ CP

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

12-3  |  Road

86
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 10:00 PM ET
Mott Athletics Center
View Odds Details →

CAL POLY

MUSTANGSCP

7-11  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
RAINBOW WARRIORS
0%
📊
MUSTANGS
100%
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-49.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +49.0 points (Hawai'i)
Rainbow WarriorsHAW (-3.5) 0 MustangsCP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rainbow Warriors Cover

100.0%

Mustangs Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HAW -49.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

HAW By 1-7 points

0.0%

HAW By 8-14 points

0.0%

CP By 1-7 points

0.0%

CP By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
106
HAWAI'I
57
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
62
HAWAI'I
75
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rainbow Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rainbow Warriors (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -49.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 CP @ HAW 86 - 75
Jan 15, 2026 HAW @ CP 86 - 66
Feb 6, 2025 HAW @ CP 63 - 79
Jan 4, 2025 CP @ HAW 55 - 68
Feb 15, 2024 HAW @ CP 80 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +77.9% more
Hawai'i: 6.6 vs Cal Poly: 1.5
Assists (L5) +29.7% more
Hawai'i: 17.1 vs Cal Poly: 12.0
Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Hawai'i: 45.8% vs Cal Poly: 40.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +11.0%
Cal Poly: 81.6% vs Hawai'i: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 106.0 86
CP Score 57.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 31.7 25.0 / 26.0
Assists 12.0 / 17.1 6.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.5 / 6.6 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 40.0 / 45.8 39.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 81.6 / 70.6 59.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 37.3 36.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.0 / 6.4 6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 12.1 23.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
CP
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
CP Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
HAW
CP
HAW
ML
58% 19-14
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
68% 21-10
ATS
64% 21-12
67% 22-11
58% 19-14
68% 21-10
TTL
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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