Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lancers @ Wildcats CBU @ ACU

CALIFORNIA BAPTIST

LANCERSCBU

12-6  |  Road

74
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 8:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Abilene)
View Odds Details →

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

10-7  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
LANCERS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (California Baptist)
LancersCBU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsACU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lancers Cover

99.8%

Wildcats Cover

0.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CBU -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CBU)

CBU By 1-7 points

1.4%

CBU By 8-14 points

5.8%

ACU By 1-7 points

0.1%

ACU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
85
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
56
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Simulated Score
71
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
75
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lancers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lancers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 ACU @ CBU 48 - 87
Feb 7, 2026 ACU @ CBU 63 - 65
Jan 15, 2026 CBU @ ACU 74 - 58
Jan 30, 2025 ACU @ CBU 60 - 83
Jan 18, 2025 CBU @ ACU 60 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +36.8% more
California Baptist: 40.6 vs Abilene Christian: 25.6
Blocks (L5) +77.6% more
Abilene Christian: 3.3 vs California Baptist: 1.8
Steals (L5) +50.2% more
Abilene Christian: 8.7 vs California Baptist: 5.8
Assists (L5) +44.5% more
Abilene Christian: 13.8 vs California Baptist: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CBU Score 85.0 74
ACU Score 56.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 28.5 30.0 / 43.0
Assists 13.8 / 9.6 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.3 / 1.8 1.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 50.9 / 41.6 37.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 69.5 68.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 25.6 / 40.6 28.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.7 / 5.8 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 11.5 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CBU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
ACU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CBU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -4.1
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ACU
CBU
ACU
CBU
ML
67% 22-11
50% 17-17
70% 23-10
76% 25-8
ATS
55% 18-15
53% 18-16
70% 23-10
76% 25-8
TTL
58% 19-14
47% 16-18
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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