Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Hornets NAU @ SAC

NORTHERN ARIZONA

LUMBERJACKSNAU

6-11  |  Road

69
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 10:00 PM ET
Hornet Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

4-11  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
📊
HORNETS
0%
LUMBERJACKS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Sacramento State)
LumberjacksNAU (-3.5) 0 HornetsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

0.8%

Hornets Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

NAU By 1-7 points

0.6%

NAU By 8-14 points

0.1%

SAC By 1-7 points

4.0%

SAC By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
68
NORTHERN ARIZONA
92
SACRAMENTO STATE
Simulated Score
68
NORTHERN ARIZONA
72
SACRAMENTO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hornets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hornets (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Hornets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 SAC @ NAU 74 - 79
Jan 15, 2026 NAU @ SAC 69 - 83
Feb 15, 2025 NAU @ SAC 65 - 61
Jan 16, 2025 SAC @ NAU 53 - 77
Feb 15, 2024 NAU @ SAC 73 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +12.9% more
Sacramento State: 6.9 vs Northern Arizona: 6.1
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
Sacramento State: 31.8 vs Northern Arizona: 29.1
Free Throw % (L5) +6.1%
Sacramento State: 76.0% vs Northern Arizona: 69.9%
Assists (L5) +32.4% more
Northern Arizona: 13.8 vs Sacramento State: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAU Score 68.0 69
SAC Score 92.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.9 / 36.1 48.0 / 32.0
Assists 9.3 / 13.8 17.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.8 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 39.1 / 48.3 46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 69.9 90.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 31.8 / 29.1 32.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.1 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 10.6 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
SAC Advantage
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -2.3
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
NAU
SAC
NAU
ML
57% 17-13
62% 20-12
87% 26-4
81% 26-6
ATS
73% 22-8
62% 20-12
87% 27-4
81% 26-6
TTL
60% 18-12
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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