CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
10-8 | Road
84
UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
13-4 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
MATADORS
0%
TRITONS
100%
MATADORS
--
TRITONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-51.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +51.0 points (Cal State Northridge)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUN -51.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)
CSUN By 1-7 points
0.0%
CSUN By 8-14 points
0.0%
UCSD By 1-7 points
0.0%
UCSD By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Northridge
86
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
UC San Diego
35
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Cal State Northridge
65
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Matadors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Matadors (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -51.0
D
Sim
Tritons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u159.5
Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
UCSD @ CSUN
70 - 80
Jan 31, 2026
UCSD @ CSUN
64 - 81
Jan 15, 2026
CSUN @ UCSD
84 - 79
Feb 27, 2025
UCSD @ CSUN
77 - 71
Jan 25, 2025
CSUN @ UCSD
54 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+38.2% more
Cal State Northridge: 19.1
vs
UC San Diego: 11.8
Blocks (L5)
+35.3% more
Cal State Northridge: 2.8
vs
UC San Diego: 1.8
Steals (L5)
+19.7% more
Cal State Northridge: 7.0
vs
UC San Diego: 5.6
Turnovers (L5)
+14.6% more
Cal State Northridge: 14.1
vs
UC San Diego: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUN Score
86.0
84
UCSD Score
35.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.0 / 34.7
30.0 / 28.0
Assists
11.8 / 19.1
14.0 / 13.0
Blocks
1.8 / 2.8
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 47.9
42.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
76.8 / 55.7
74.0 / 66.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 41.6
32.0 / 46.0
Steals
5.6 / 7.0
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 14.1
6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUN
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUN
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
CSUN
UCSD
CSUN
ML
56%
19-15
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
67%
22-11
ATS
50%
17-17
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
67%
22-11
TTL
62%
21-13
58%
19-14
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
