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TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

11-6  |  Road

105
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 8:30 PM ET
America First Events Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN UTAH

THUNDERBIRDSSUU

4-13  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
TEXANS --
THUNDERBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Tarleton State)
TexansTAR (-3.5) 0 ThunderbirdsSUU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

99.9%

Thunderbirds Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TAR -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)

TAR By 1-7 points

1.1%

TAR By 8-14 points

4.8%

SUU By 1-7 points

0.1%

SUU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
98
TARLETON STATE
68
SOUTHERN UTAH
Simulated Score
72
TARLETON STATE
75
SOUTHERN UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunderbirds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Thunderbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 SUU @ TAR 74 - 78
Feb 7, 2026 TAR @ SUU 62 - 59
Jan 15, 2026 TAR @ SUU 105 - 106
Feb 1, 2025 SUU @ TAR 58 - 75
Jan 9, 2025 TAR @ SUU 74 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +56.4% more
Tarleton State: 12.5 vs Southern Utah: 5.5
Free Throw % (L5) +11.4%
Tarleton State: 79.6% vs Southern Utah: 68.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Tarleton State: 46.3% vs Southern Utah: 40.9%
Blocks (L5) +98.6% more
Southern Utah: 4.3 vs Tarleton State: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 98.0 105
SUU Score 68.0 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 31.9 41.0 / 53.0
Assists 11.9 / 9.8 19.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.2 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.9 / 46.3 49.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 68.3 / 79.6 74.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 28.2 40.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.5 / 12.5 9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 13.1 18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
SUU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
SUU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SUU
TAR
SUU
TAR
ML
61% 19-12
59% 19-13
68% 21-10
66% 21-11
ATS
71% 22-9
69% 22-10
69% 22-10
66% 21-11
TTL
52% 16-15
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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