Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Wolves @ Jaguars ARST @ USA

ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

12-5  |  Road

87
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 8:00 PM ET
Mitchell Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

12-5  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
0%
📊
JAGUARS
100%
RED WOLVES --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Arkansas State)
Red WolvesARST (-3.5) 0 JaguarsUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wolves Cover

100.0%

Jaguars Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARST -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

ARST By 1-7 points

0.4%

ARST By 8-14 points

2.2%

USA By 1-7 points

0.0%

USA By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
86
ARKANSAS STATE
52
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
68
ARKANSAS STATE
72
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Wolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Wolves (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 USA @ ARST 92 - 88
Jan 15, 2026 ARST @ USA 87 - 91
Mar 9, 2025 ARST @ USA 74 - 71
Feb 19, 2025 USA @ ARST 60 - 56
Jan 9, 2025 ARST @ USA 62 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +20.0% more
Arkansas State: 14.5 vs South Alabama: 11.6
Turnovers (L5) +17.5% more
Arkansas State: 14.2 vs South Alabama: 11.8
Steals (L5) +12.4% more
Arkansas State: 8.8 vs South Alabama: 7.7
Rebounding (L5) +8.9% more
Arkansas State: 42.1 vs South Alabama: 38.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 86.0 87
USA Score 52.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.9 / 31.8 22.0 / 30.0
Assists 11.6 / 14.5 12.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.2 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 43.4 46.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 69.9 / 74.9 70.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 38.3 / 42.1 33.0 / 51.0
Steals 7.7 / 8.8 11.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 14.2 5.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
ARST
USA
ARST
ML
47% 15-17
48% 15-16
57% 17-13
53% 16-14
ATS
53% 17-15
58% 18-13
57% 17-13
53% 16-14
TTL
66% 21-11
61% 19-12
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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