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IDAHO

VANDALSIDHO

10-6  |  Road

68
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 9:00 PM ET
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IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

9-8  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
VANDALS
0%
📊
BENGALS
100%
VANDALS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
IDAHO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Idaho)
VandalsIDHO (-3.5) 0 BengalsIDST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vandals Cover

75.8%

Bengals Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IDHO -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDHO)

IDHO By 1-7 points

26.2%

IDHO By 8-14 points

25.3%

IDST By 1-7 points

15.3%

IDST By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
58
IDAHO
51
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
70
IDAHO
75
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vandals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vandals (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 IDST @ IDHO 69 - 99
Jan 15, 2026 IDHO @ IDST 68 - 76
Feb 27, 2025 IDST @ IDHO 69 - 65
Feb 1, 2025 IDHO @ IDST 71 - 87
Feb 17, 2024 IDST @ IDHO 53 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +37.3% more
Idaho: 7.5 vs Idaho State: 4.7
Rebounding (L5) +8.1% more
Idaho: 35.1 vs Idaho State: 32.3
Blocks (L5) +62.2% more
Idaho State: 3.9 vs Idaho: 2.4
Turnovers (L5) +32.8% more
Idaho State: 11.6 vs Idaho: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score 58.0 68
IDST Score 51.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 35.4 42.0 / 15.0
Assists 11.0 / 9.7 9.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.4 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.7 / 45.0 47.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 75.3 80.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 35.1 34.0 / 31.0
Steals 4.7 / 7.5 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 8.7 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO Advantage
21-15-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -1.9
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
IDHO
IDST
IDHO
ML
59% 19-13
56% 20-16
72% 23-9
64% 21-12
ATS
50% 16-16
58% 21-15
72% 23-9
64% 21-12
TTL
59% 19-13
69% 25-11
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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