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CAL STATE FULLERTON

TITANSCSUF

8-10  |  Road

69
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 9:00 PM ET
University Credit Union Center
View Odds Details →

UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

9-7  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
TITANS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (UC Davis)
TitansCSUF (-3.5) 0 AggiesUCD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

0.3%

Aggies Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCD -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)

CSUF By 1-7 points

0.2%

CSUF By 8-14 points

0.0%

UCD By 1-7 points

1.7%

UCD By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
60
CAL STATE FULLERTON
88
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
67
CAL STATE FULLERTON
72
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 UCD @ CSUF 70 - 82
Feb 19, 2026 UCD @ CSUF 92 - 93
Jan 15, 2026 CSUF @ UCD 69 - 74
Feb 8, 2025 UCD @ CSUF 65 - 49
Jan 9, 2025 CSUF @ UCD 53 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.8% more
UC Davis: 11.9 vs Cal State Fullerton: 10.3
Free Throw % (L5) +12.4%
UC Davis: 81.2% vs Cal State Fullerton: 68.8%
Blocks (L5) +29.7% more
Cal State Fullerton: 2.5 vs UC Davis: 1.8
Steals (L5) +26.4% more
Cal State Fullerton: 10.2 vs UC Davis: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSUF Score 60.0 69
UCD Score 88.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 40.4 24.0 / 33.0
Assists 18.0 / 18.5 13.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.8 / 2.5 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 46.0 46.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 81.2 / 68.8 68.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 33.4 43.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.5 / 10.2 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 10.3 20.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUF
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
UCD Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUF Advantage
19-11-2 (63.3%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
UCD
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: +0.6
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
CSUF
UCD
CSUF
ML
58% 19-14
68% 23-11
64% 21-12
76% 26-8
ATS
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
64% 21-12
76% 26-8
TTL
61% 20-13
59% 20-14
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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