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JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

9-8  |  Road

65
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 6:30 PM ET
Holmes Convocation Center
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APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

10-8  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
DUKES --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (James Madison)
DukesJMU (-3.5) 0 MountaineersAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

99.7%

Mountaineers Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JMU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

JMU By 1-7 points

1.7%

JMU By 8-14 points

6.8%

APP By 1-7 points

0.2%

APP By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
99
JAMES MADISON
71
APP STATE
Simulated Score
75
JAMES MADISON
70
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Dukes (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o133.5 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u133.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 APP @ JMU 58 - 69
Jan 15, 2026 JMU @ APP 65 - 80
Jan 18, 2025 APP @ JMU 58 - 50
Jan 11, 2025 JMU @ APP 66 - 86
Jan 27, 2024 JMU @ APP 76 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.6% more
James Madison: 13.6 vs App State: 8.9
Blocks (L5) +34.0% more
James Madison: 4.4 vs App State: 2.9
Assists (L5) +17.2% more
James Madison: 11.4 vs App State: 9.5
Steals (L5) +14.4% more
James Madison: 4.0 vs App State: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 99.0 65
APP Score 71.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.9 / 28.2 42.0 / 40.0
Assists 9.5 / 11.4 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.9 / 4.4 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.4 / 46.4 53.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 65.1 / 71.0 63.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 39.5 / 39.2 38.0 / 31.0
Steals 3.5 / 4.0 1.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 13.6 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
JMU
APP
JMU
ML
62% 20-12
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
ATS
59% 19-13
67% 22-11
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
TTL
69% 22-10
67% 22-11
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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